Hi mlg,
Thanks for the question. Firstly, let me say without a doubt that there would be a lot of Syrians who would choose the 'rebels' over the government, no question. But all unbiased polling I have seen indicates that while the Syrian government is not overly beloved, only a minority would choose the rebels over the government.
One poll I saw (can't remember the source as it was a while ago, but I could try to look it up if you wished to see the evidence, which would be fair enough) indicated that 70% of Syrians would prefer the government, 20% would prefer neither the government or the rebels, while 10% would favour the rebels.
Another poll I saw indicated that Assad would comfortably win in a free and fair election against a 'rebel' candidate Anyway, please note that such references to polling are merely a starting point for my answer to your question.
Assad is an Alawite, a sect that makes up about 15% of the Syrian population. All Alawites are public enemy number one of the rebels, who are mainly Sunni Muslim. Sunni Muslims make up about 60% of Syria's population (more on this a bit later).
Alawites have suffered massively from this war, and from the outset a common cry of rebels and rebel-sympathisers has been "Christians to Beirut, Alawites to the grave." This slogan obviously states that Christians should be ethnically cleansed from Syria, while genocide should be carried out against Alawites. But they are clearly more than words; there are volumes of indisputable evidence that this brutal sentiment has been actively carried out since the start of the war.
Christians in Syria are traditionally government supporters. In fact, Assad has had them in high-up governmental positions because he knows they are generally loyal and reliable servants. Moreover, along with minorities such as the Druze (a Shiite sect), actual Shia and some other smaller minorities, there are approximately 30% of minorities who make up the backbone of Assad's support.
Then there are the Kurds, a separate entity, who have no loyalty to the government or the rebels, but who have made it clear time and time again that they would rather have Assad in power than the rebels. The Kurds have co-operated with some minor rebel groups from time to time, but have been at war with the major rebels groups since the beginning of the conflict, and have suffered from horrendous atrocities at the hands of these rebel groups.
Then there is the Sunni Muslim majority. Many of these support the rebels, although the numbers are not clear. However, a sizeable number of these ('Urban Sunnis' as they are called) support the government, and there is a higher number of Sunnis in Assad's standing army then there are Alawites (although, to be fair, there do appear to be ongoing trust issues with some of these elements within the regime's army).
To be honest, mlg, I confess that I am nothing more than an 'armchair expert' on Syria. But I am, at least, an armchair expert who has undertaken extensive research on the topic from independent sources.
There were two main things which led me to start this forum several years ago: 1) The genocidal persecution of Syrian Christians by 'rebel' groups, and 2) The horribly dishonest portrayal of the conflict by the so-called 'International community' and its mainstream, establishment media.
Hey, I don't want to bore you with an overly long response. Sorry if I have already done that. Again, thanks for the question.
In summary, I never had any interest or sympathy for Syria until the outbreak of the so-called 'Arab Spring' about five years ago. When I heard isolated snippets about Christian persecution in that and other countries in the area, I began to dig and was horrified at what I learned, and became convinced, based on a wealth of evidence, that Syria was the victim of an international conspiracy (as other countries such as Serbia, Iraq and Libya haave been before it).
Before I continue, I invite you to watch the following 2-minute clip from General Wesley Clark, from 2011, in which he states that the real powers-that-be had plans (since 2001) to take down numerous Middle-East countries within a short span of time.
Please don't think my pieces of evidence are isolated. I have heaps to back it up, but am just offering you solitary pieces to keep it concise:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9RC1Mepk_SwTo sum up, much of the turmoil in the Middle-East has been orchestrated from western countries and their allies. The 'rebels' have been CIA-backed from the outset, and the international media has played its deceptive part beautifully by demonising the Syrian government at every opportunity and completely ignoring and downplaying rebel atrocities, to the point that the mainstream media have been caught time and time again deliberately pinning the blame- for rebel led massacres- onto Syrian government forces (this sort of thing has been documented earlier in this forum).
Hey, I'll leave it there. I'm well aware that not all of my info would be 100% accurate but it's better than the 10% (maximum) accuracy that is offered by the mainstream media.
Last point (my opinion based on research): Is Assad perfect? No- far, far from it. Are the rebels perfect? No, they are much worse than Assad and they are largely backed by international players who are meddling in Syria for sinister reasons. The outside world might not recognise it, and might ignore it, but the average Syrian knows far better what is really going on inside their country (and they know it far better than me, too).
I could go on for ages about this, but feel I've already gone on long enough.
Thanks for the enquiry. May the Lord bless you, and yours.